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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Monday, January 19, 2015

Bottom Line Thoughts on the Gold Sector / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Gary_Tanashian

Improving Macro Backdrop

In light of a shifting global macro backdrop that we can finally sink our teeth into with respect to a bullish orientation on the gold stock sector, I thought it might be a good idea to publicly post some bottom line thoughts from this week's NFTRH report.

The report went into great detail to explain why more fundamentals that matter are starting to come in line, after the chart below refused to make a signal against our big picture view of global economic contraction, which has been the biggest key for the counter-cyclical gold mining sector.

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Commodities

Monday, January 19, 2015

Silver Price Breaks Out on Swiss France Euro Decoupling / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Clive_Maund

Silver broke out from a Head-and-Shoulders bottom on Friday, a day after gold did the same following the news that the Swiss Franc is to be decoupled from the euro. In the face of the impending QE tsunami in Europe, the Swiss have decided to call it a day and give up supporting the euro peg and retreat to the relative safety of the mountains, where at least they will have a plentiful supply of their high quality cheese and chocolate, as foreigners are less able to buy it. The reason that gold and silver broke higher is that the Swiss move is an unwelcome reminder of the ongoing and intensifying global currency war, characterized by competitive devaluation and bouts of QE. When there is more and more money and it buys less and less, gold and silver must go up in price - that's not too difficult to understand, is it??

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Commodities

Monday, January 19, 2015

Gold, Flights to Quality / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Alasdair_Macleod

It is pleasing to see precious metals in favour as 2015 gets underway in earnest. Whilst ‘quality’ might be a subjective term, it seems to have been applied, in my opinion quite rightly, to gold, silver, platinum and palladium by investors looking to protect themselves from a start-of-the-year volatility storm in other asset classes. In the wider commodity world, oil and copper prices are still languishing whilst precious metals have shown their value to investors as a stand-alone and increasingly non-correlated asset class.

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Commodities

Sunday, January 18, 2015

Gold Sheep Sheared / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Austin_Galt

Baa, baa. That's the sound of the sheep that follow the crowd spouting bunkum that gold can't go up if the US dollar goes up as well. This fallacy has been shown over the past couple of months for what it is - complete nonsense.

Both gold and the US dollar have surged in tandem the past couple of months. This is why I like to analyse each instrument on its own merits and not let my judgement of one be clouded by my view of another. This is often easier said than done mind you.

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Commodities

Saturday, January 17, 2015

Gold And Silver – Swiss National Bank Rally. Enough For A Change? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Michael_Noonan

It would seem that last week’s rally in gold was Swiss National Bank-driven, plain and simple. It is difficult to get a handle on the ramifications of what just happened with the Swiss “unpegging” from the Euro. It was becoming prohibitively expensive for the SNB to keep buying Euros and trashing their own economy in the process. Ostensibly, this is a tale of a central bank telling the US and the rest of the EU, enough! We have had it, and we are now going to be more fiscally responsible.

Right. Just after opting not to have the Swiss franc backed proportionately by gold, a move that would have been an act of fiscal responsibility. If there is one constant about world-wide central bankers, it is that they lie on an ongoing basis. The truth, if it ever comes out, may not become apparent for the next several months. It makes no sense for one part of the central banking cabal to pull a “surprise attack” on the rest of the group.

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Commodities

Saturday, January 17, 2015

China’s Global Gold Supply "Game of Stones" / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: MoneyMetals

China has a 4-way global gold supply domination strategy. And it’s starting to corner the market.

First, China buys physical gold in world markets, fabricates it where necessary into “good delivery” bars – in Switzerland or the Middle East – then ships the bullion, transparently through Hong Kong or Shanghai (or quietly through Beijing and other ports of entry).

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Commodities

Saturday, January 17, 2015

Gold Price Rally Has Technical and Fundamental Support / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Sy_Harding

Gold plunged 48% from its record high above $1,900 an ounce in 2011, to its low late last year. That was a sizable bear market move.

Shorter-term, it was one of last year’s worst performers, down 15% for the year.

In a recent column, I noted how at year-end, investors looking for the next year’s winners tend to look for them on lists of last year’s ‘Top 25 stocks’ or ‘Top 25 mutual funds’. However, studies show they would be better off shopping among the previous year’s losers. (The previous year’s winners are more liable to already be overbought and over-valued, while the losers are more likely to be oversold and on the bargain table).

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Commodities

Friday, January 16, 2015

Silver Price Ready to Run / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Zeal_LLC

Silver looks to be on the verge of a major new upleg, finally emerging from the past couple years’ ugly sentiment wasteland.  This beleaguered precious metal recently bottomed as futures speculators threw in the towel on their extreme shorting.  And while investors’ ongoing silver stealth buying continues, it’s been modest.  So there is vast room for capital inflows to accelerate dramatically as gold mean reverts higher.

Silver has always had a special allure for hardened contrarian investors.  Its price action is exceptionally volatile, with massive rallies erupting from time to time that multiply capital deployed in it.  With silver’s relatively-small market size, it doesn’t take a lot of new investment buying to catapult prices higher.  And shifting sentiment, a powerful self-feeding motivator, fuels the big swings in capital flows that really move silver.

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Commodities

Friday, January 16, 2015

From Gold Bear to Gold Bull? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Bear markets end with extreme bearish sentiment but positive price action is needed before a trend change can be confirmed. That can include (among other things) breaking downtrends, breaking resistance and breaking the pattern of lower lows and lower highs. There have been positive developments for precious metals beneath the surface but Thursday's breakout in Gold is more significant. If Gold holds this breakout then it will be all but impossible to argue that it remains in a bear market.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 15, 2015

What to Make of the Surge in Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: There are a few historical figures I greatly admire, even though I have pronounced personal problems with some of their opinions.

Winston Churchill leads the list.

On November 9, 1942, Churchill uttered these famous words at a London luncheon: “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”

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Commodities

Thursday, January 15, 2015

Gold Trend Change? Price Breaks Above 200 Day Moving Average / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Jeb_Handwerger

For weeks I have been predicting that precious metals and the junior gold miners would bottom and outperform in January.  Now gold is breathtakingly breaking above the key 200 day moving average and breaking four month highs as the World looks to gold as a safe haven.  The intermediate to long term trend may be turning positive and unfortunately the amateur investor has already panicked out or may be covering their shorts.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 15, 2015

The Oil-Fueled Economic Cycle / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Harry_Dent

I’ve been focusing on this fracking and high-yield debt bubble precisely because it’s most likely to become the new trigger that the housing and subprime bubble was to the last global financial crisis in 2008/2009.

Bubbles just go on and on until they either get so extremely high that they burst of their own weight — as with the tech bubble — or more often when something triggers defaults that then cascade through the very debt markets that helped create the bubble.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 15, 2015

Market Chaos as Swiss Franc Surges 30% In 13 Minutes, Gold Rises Sharply / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: GoldCore

Chaos was seen in financial markets today as participants were thrown a curveball when Switzerland surprised the world by removing its three-year cap on the Swiss franc, unpegging it from the euro. This sent the undervalued currency soaring and Europe’s shares and bond yields tumbling.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 14, 2015

GDX vs. SPY; Different This Time / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: Gary_Tanashian

The title is not meant to declare that this time gold stocks are going to exercise the excellent risk vs. reward stance vs. the US stock market. But it is meant to declare that the stimulus for the recent out performance is much healthier than it was last summer, during the last bounce.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Another 15% Drop in Copper Price? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Ashraf_Laidi

Today's 4.3% slump in copper is the ninth consecutive daily decline in the metal, a pattern last seen 11 months ago during the peak of China's financing shenanigans -- when Chinese companies used the metal as collateral to access cheap-USD financing and invest the proceeds in higher yielding Chinese yuan.

Since the start of 2014, copper is down 20, outperforming energy commodities (Brent -56%, WTI -49%, NatGas -29%) and underperforming metals (gold +2.0%, silver -14%). The striking difference between now and Q1 2104 is that copper is now joined by the much feared converging decline along the rest of metals, energy and agricultural commodities. The extent of copper's damage is highlighted by more than just unwinding in Chinese trade financing.

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